Document Type



Published by the American Statistical Association in American Statistician Volume 61, Issue 3, pages 239-244.
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Probability;Statistical Analysis


American Statistical Association

Publication Source

American Statistician


In the present work we introduce the problem of determining the probability that a rotating and bouncing cylinder (i.e. flipped coin) will land and come to rest on its edge. We present this problem and analysis as a practical, nontrivial example to introduce the reader to Bayesian model comparison. Several models are presented, each of which take into consideration different physical aspects of the problem and the relative effects on the edge landing probability. The Bayesian formulation of model comparison is then used to compare the models and their predictive agreement with data from hand-flipped cylinders of several sizes.