Title

Movie Analytics and the Future of Film Finance. Are Oscars and Box Office Revenue Predictable?

Document Type

Book Chapter

Comments

Is part of Handbook of State Aid for Film, Media Business and Innovation book series

Keywords

box office revenue; controversy; film financiang; data mining; movie analytics; oscars; predication markets; text mining

Identifier Data

https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-71716-6_30

Publisher

Springer

Publication Source

Handbook of State Aid for Film. Media Business and Innovation book series

Abstract

This chapter discusses to which extent modern analytics techniques can help us understand the success of movies, as measured by their box office or attributed Oscars. Interesting lessons emerge from our analyses. Predicting box office revenue on the basis of data available before the release of the movie remains difficult, even with state-of-the-art techniques. Prediction markets are a remarkably powerful tool at predicting success at Oscars. A moderate amount of controversy, as measured by the number of underlying themes raised by movie reviewers, may prove to be helpful in obtaining an Academy Award for Best Picture.

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